Fed Rate Cut Odds Diminish Amid Policymaker Divisions and Data Disruptions
Market expectations for a December rate cut have sharply declined, with CME's FedWatch tool showing just a 33.8% probability—down from 93.7% a month ago. The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed DEEP divisions among policymakers, with many advocating for maintaining current rates through year-end to avoid fueling inflation expectations.
The ongoing government shutdown has compounded uncertainty, forcing the Bureau of Labor Statistics to delay October's jobs report. This data blackout leaves markets navigating without key economic indicators as Fed officials debate whether further tightening might undermine their 2% inflation target.